Monthly report · No.7
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2024
spotlight
HALLOWEEN FUN IN
THE EAST BAY!
Declan Spring & Denitsa Shopova
Celebrate Halloween with a visit to a local pumpkin patch, haunted house, or other fun Halloween destination in the East Bay!
BOO AT THE ZOO!! Oakland Zoo - October 25-27 - All Ages
Advance reservation is recommended, unless you’re an Oakland Zoo member. Come and celebrate Halloween at Oakland Zoo this year! Grab a program as you enter the Zoo and follow the clues on the self-guided scavenger hunt to trick-or-treat for special edition animal Trading Cards throughout the Zoo. Upon completing your scavenger hunt, collect a bonus Trading Card and a fair trade organic chocolate!
Remember to dress in costume (no inflatable costumes - they can scare the Zoo animals) when you visit. Win great prizes at the in-person costume contest held each day of Boo at the Zoo at 12 p.m. in the Wildlife Theater located in the Wayne & Gladys Valley Children's Zoo or tag #OaklandZoo on social media to enter our virtual costume contest!
HALLOWEEN JAM!! Children’s Fairyland - Oct. 19, 20, and 25 | 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Oct. 26 & 27 | BONUS HOUR DAYS! 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
For Tickets visit Fairyland.org - Halloween Jam is Fairyland's most famous, most festive, most fantastic fall celebration! This year, they’re brewing up a lineup of fun, special performances, arts & crafts, puppet shows, bouncy houses, games & prizes, and Photo Booth.
And NEW Surprises This Year!
It’s only getting bigger, better, and more bewitching. Catch These Daily Shows!
Performers at Emerald City Stage: 11:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m.
“Tricks & Treats” Puppet Show 11 a.m., 2 and 4 p.m.
Special Events During Halloween Jam!
Oakland’s Magic Kitchen with Chef Michele McQueen of Town Fare restaurant - October 26, 11:30 a.m.
Book Celebration with Nikki Shannon Smith October 27, 11:30 a.m.
Please reach out to us via email: declan@thehomefactor.com or ehsan@thehomefactor.com are standing by for you!
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
The overall trend for 2024 has thus far been that the market is shifting in favor of buyers. Of course, we must acknowledge the large caveat that our market has long been heavily tilted towards sellers, and there is an acute affordability crisis in the Bay Area.
For the second month in a row we saw a Year-over-Year (YoY) decline in the median home price. September saw a sizable jump in the number of new listings (6.9% YoY). Given seasonal trends, we expect the number of new listings to decline throughout the last quarter of the year (October - December).
Most cities saw their peak of active inventory in mid September and have seen a steady decline since. The lower interest rates and rash of new listings in September did bring a predictable increase in contracts written - but there was not enough time for buyer momentum to shift before rates increased again on the heels of new inflation and job data.
Housing is more expensive than ever, and we are still seeing continued appreciation in several neighborhoods - but looking at our market as a whole, the data indicates that we are undergoing a shift. Including Emeryville and Piedmont in our analysis, let’s look back 5 years at September 2024 vs September 2019, the last September before the pandemic market began. There has been a 15% decrease in homes sold, but a 37% increase in the number of homes for sale.
We always want to be exquisitely clear too in educating our base that general market trends are not a substitute for hyper-local, property specific information. For example, we’ve seen more than a couple of Berkeley homes in the past month receive as many as 10 offers. Potential buyers who misinterpreted the general data as being applicable to those properties received a powerful wake-up call!
How this data applies to your situation depends on where you own, where you are looking to buy, and of course your financial situation. Please do reach out anytime - we’re always happy to hear from you!
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
In September the Federal Reserve cut their benchmark rate by .50%. This decision was aimed at supporting economic growth while keeping inflation in check. As discussed here last month, mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level since September 2022 before the Fed’s announcement, but they’ve trended higher since then, to an average rate of 6.22% on October 10th. What the heck?
It may surprise you to learn that this is actually the norm. Mortgage rates have risen at the beginning of every Fed cutting cycle since 1984 with one exception (2019). Mortgage rates tend to trend with the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond, which has spiked after the first rate cut, then gradually dropped as the rate cutting cycle continued. In the eight previous cycles, we’ve seen an average relative percentage decline in the 10-year bond yield of 37%. While it will take time to see the full effect of the Fed rate cuts on mortgage rates, I expect to see a continued decline in rates.
Remember too that the actions of the Fed are not the only factors affecting mortgage rates. Inflation is the arch enemy of the bond market that governs mortgage rates, so any event that signals inflation can push mortgage rates up. This month’s Jobs Report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) both reported hotter than expected results. Tensions in the Middle East are driving up the price of oil. This puts upward pressure on mortgage rates in the short term.
However, as long as inflation continues to moderate, we can expect mortgage rates to follow suit.
I'm here to help you navigate this environment for your best benefit. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, looking to refinance, or just curious about the market, feel free to reach out to me at 510-501-8473 or Evelyn.Freitas@rate.com to see how his information applies specifically to you.
We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com
(415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com
(510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com
(510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
GUIDING AND INSPIRING PEOPLE TO INCREASE THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND LOVE OF LIFE THROUGH WELL DESIGNED HOME OWNERSHIP
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com (415) 446-8591