Monthly report · No.6
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
spotlight
The Home Factor
Coming Soon to
your TV!
Declan Spring & Denitsa Shopova
We are REALLY excited to share this important news with you! We have been selected to host a national TV show, with EMMY nominated producers, about Real Estate, Lifestyle, and Community representing our beloved Inner East Bay Market, from Oakland, through Berkeley, Kensington, El Cerrito and Richmond.This is a very unique opportunity for only a select few and we are honored to be a part of representing our beloved Inner East Bay! This is a real show, not some fake reality show, and focused on positivity and the stories of our local neighborhoods.
The show in other markets has already been nominated for an EMMY!!
How to watch.. The show will be airing on CABLE, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, and Roku. A lot will happen on social media, where we’ll repurpose the content for our followers to see.
HUGE FAVOR! The executive producer said specifically that they are looking for us to interview and share the stories of the brightest and best voices in our cities, movers and shakers, innovators, CEO's, philanthropists, etc. Those making a positive impact on our communities, as the show is meant to combat negative media with real and positive stories.
WHO should we look to feature on this show? Please give it some thought and reach out to either Declan or Denitsa, we'd love your suggestions and, better still, your introduction.
Also, in the next season, they are looking for homes going on the market to feature the stories of sellers and to showcase unique and significant property. Do you know anyone who might be selling an architecturally significant home or a home with some unique meaning, story, or value that might resonate with an audience? We'd love to pitch their listing to the producers for the show.
Again, please consider reaching out to us, we’d love to hear your thoughts on aspects of our amazing part of the world, and the people who live here, that might be a perfect fit for this exciting new adventure!
Please reach out to us via email: declan@thehomefactor.com or ehsan@thehomefactor.com are standing by for you!
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
This edition marks a change in how we account for the Single Family Residences sold in the prior month. In previous editions, we were counting a month's sales as the homes that went under contract (aka “pending”) in the subject month - so if an offer was made on August 20th and escrow closed in September, we counted that as an August sale.
Going forward we’ve decided to go with the industry standard of counting homes that closed escrow (i.e. “sold”) in a subject month. We deviated from the industry standard because we wanted to provide the most up-to-date market data possible. Ultimately, we’re choosing to present the same data as many of our colleagues do for simplicity and uniformity.
A quick note: If ever you see a shocking statistic presented anywhere, your first question ought to be - “what’s the sample size?” The fewer data points in a sample size, the less reliable the findings will be.
Looking at Albany this month for example, we’re showing a 32% increase in median sold price compared to August 2023. The median price for August for the Inner East Bay as a whole is down 6.4%. Why is Albany so jarringly out of sync? The answer lies in the data. Albany’s percentage was calculated based on only 3 sales for August 2024 vs 4 sales for August 2023. All 3 homes sold in Albany in August 2024 were large 4 bedroom homes. 4 bedroom homes in Albany are something of a rare find and command a very high sales prices. Of the 4 homes sold in August 2023 however, 2 of them were 2-bedroom homes. With so few data points, and a markedly different bedroom count, the data for Albany must be reviewed carefully by a professional for greater context. We can’t even begin to tell you how problematic the data can be for the algorithms (i.e. Zillow, etc) especially when additional details begin to get lost in translation such as views, framing condition, decade and style of construction, wildfire risk, and so on. As interconnected as the housing market is, most consumers are aware that real estate sales data is a hyper-local phenomenon. Please reach out to us anytime to get clarity. We’re here to help!
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.50%, signaling their intention for an additional .50% of cuts in 2024 and 1% throughout 2025. While this is great news for homeowners and buyers, it’s important to note that the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates (the Fed Funds rate governs home equity lines, credit cards, and loans between banks, for instance). So the Fed’s move influences mortgage rates, but isn’t the sole driving factor. Instead, mortgage rates are determined by the market in mortgage-backed securities. This bond market usually reacts before the Fed’s actual decision, and this time was no exception. Since May, the average 30-year fixed rate has dropped from 7.22% to 6.09%, more than a full percentage point, just on the expectation of the Fed cuts. See freddiemac.com/pmms for historical weekly data on mortgage rates.
For homebuyers, decreasing rates improve affordability, allowing buyers to qualify for lower payments or larger loan amounts. The drop from 7.22% to 6.09% represents a $561 monthly savings on a $750,000 mortgage. Looked at a different way, a borrower buying with a $750,000 mortgage at 7.22% would have the same payment on a mortgage of $843,000 at the 6.09% rate. For homeowners, this is an ideal time to consider refinancing to consolidate high interest credit card debt, which has been piling up for many consumers over the last three years of hot inflation.
As mortgage rates continue to decline, we expect increased activity in the housing market. Lower rates drive demand, leading to more multiple offers, faster home sales, and rising home prices. Whether you’re looking to refinance or buy, this could be the perfect time to act!
I'm here to help you navigate this environment for your best benefit. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, looking to refinance, or just curious about the market, feel free to reach out to me at 510-501-8473 or Evelyn.Freitas@rate.com to see how his information applies specifically to you.
We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com
(415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com
(510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com
(510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
GUIDING AND INSPIRING PEOPLE TO INCREASE THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND LOVE OF LIFE THROUGH WELL DESIGNED HOME OWNERSHIP
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com (415) 446-8591