march 15-16, 2025

Weekend Open Homes & Market Analysis

The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for the weekend of Saturday March 15, 2025, and Sunday March 16, 2025.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett. 

We’re  happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.

For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we're happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay. 

For this week’s Saturday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.

For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here. 

The Spring real estate market has finally kicked-off. Our busiest time of the year! 2 weeks of rain definitely dampened inventory levels prior to the Super Bowl, and open house data for Super Bowl Sunday itself showed a drop in the number of open houses. Data this week however reveals that we are in sync with normal seasonal trends. While the number of open homes in general is lower than last week, the active listing count in all cities is up, with the exception of Pinole. I have a feeling that rain in the past week probably resulted in a number of new listings being pushed out to the coming week for their market debut, and that rain forecast for Sunday has dampened the count of open homes. Active inventory is up in all 3 of our biggest cities, Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond, however the number of new listings is uneven from city to city. The speed of absorption, meaning, the speed at which homes are going under contract, is very healthy. Per normal seasonality, we anticipate that inventory levels will continue to increase through the next couple of months and our interest will be in whether or not demand keeps pace with available listings.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 64% which is in line with the 62% average over the past 2 months. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of East Bay transactions occur in Oakland. 

The first week in January each year is generally the low point each calendar year for inventory. There’s an unusual set of dynamics at play in the market: Mortgage rates ticked up after the Fed announced its first rate cut in September, and again following the rate cut in late December. This confuses the market, sidelining some buyers. Trump’s 2nd term has the potential to roil money markets at a moment's notice. With off and on tariffs inflation is once again a primary concern Mortgage interest rates are not expected to fall this year. Fannie Mae economists said Thursday Feb 20 they don’t expect rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drop below 6.5% this year or next — a prediction in line with a Feb. 19 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. It’s worth noting however that with lackluster sentiment on the economy by investors last week, mortgage rates dipped a little, in line with a dip in the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond. More on the 10 year Treasury bond yield at the foot of this blog post.

It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx 6.5%+ are the new normal, but new homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s  always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market. 

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond. 

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses.The 2 month chart is exactly in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year. There’s a measurable uptick in the number of available homes, and property is going under contract at a healthy pace. Demand in Oakland is strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given.

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The year started out in line with expectations, i.e., an incremental uptick in available homes, but then ran backwards for 2 weeks due to poor weather. There’s a measurable uptick in the number of available homes, and property is going under contract at a healthy pace. Demand in Berkeley is extremely strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given.

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The year started out in line with expectations, i.e., an incremental uptick in available homes, but then ran backwards for 2 weeks due to poor weather. We’ve had an uptick in the number of available homes in the past 2 weeks, and property is going under contract at a balanced and healthy pace. Demand in Richmond is extremely strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given.

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 62 days. DOM had been declining steadily for a month which was a very welcome trend. But with an uptick in new inventory I was wondering how soon it would take before that trend reversed and it seems to be happening now. Average days on market last week was 56… It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Insurance concerns are causing an upward pressure on HOA dues as well, potentially putting the health of even the most financially sound HOA reserves at risk over the next several years. Please let us know if you’d like more detail on this aspect of the market.

Open Homes for Sunday, March 16: Let’s break it down:

Of the 273 single family residential homes that have an open house, 7% had a price adjustment. This is an increase over last week of a few points. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancelations.  

Of the 112 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 4.5% had a price adjustment in the past week, most of them in Oakland. It’s worth noting that in Marina Bay, Richmond, in particular, condos are continuing to lose value, consistent with a downward trend that started last year. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There continues to be significant opportunity in the current, weakened condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers. 

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days:

A total of 28 listings were canceled from the Multiple Listing service in the past 7 days across all price points, and spread over multiple cities. The rate of cancellations slowed late Jan/early Feb, and picked up slightly on the week ending 2/14/25 as stagnant listings made way for new inventory. Cancellations plateaued for a couple of weeks. The rate of cancellations picked up 2 weeks ago but has fallen in the past week.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon. These listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

A quick word about mortgage rates in general since home mortgage rates have been top of mind for consumers in the past few years: Since September 2024 the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 1% but mortgage rates initially ticked up causing confusion among consumers. Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. As the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increases, typically so too do mortgage interest rates, and as the the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond declines, mortgage interest rates typically follow the same pattern.

Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is consistently a top production realtor in the East Bay and Berkeley, Albany and Richmond. He is respected by clients and colleagues alike.

Declan Spring is among the best real estate agents and realtors working in the East Bay, Berkeley, Albany, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Kensington, Pinole, Hercules, and Oakland. Time and time again his clients review him with 5 stars and extraordinary compliments. Declan Spring receives most of his business by referral. He does not need to rely on traditional marketing because people are always lining up to work with him through word of mouth and by referral. He’s known as “the realtors realtor” because he gets a lot of referral business from industry professionals. How would you like to work with a realtors realtor? Declan Spring has a stellar industry reputation and consumers are generally not aware that being well known and respected in the agent community and industry is a super power for Declan’s clients.