December 21-22, 2024
Weekend Open Homes & Market Analysis
The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for the weekend of Saturday, December 21, 2024, and Sunday, December 22, 2024.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.
Happy Holidays! The number of open houses for Sundays this year peaked on 9/20 with 528 open houses, which is the typical post-Labor Day trend, but has slowed down in recent weeks per the chart below. This slow down represents the normal seasonal trend each year for the period from mid-October until mid-January. The data for 12/1/24 (Thanksgiving) shows a pronounced dip which is typical for a major holiday, and we’re declining in a big way again again as we approach the end of December.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 58% which is 8 points lower than the past 4 month average of 66% and seems to point to the possibility that the number of listings in Oakland is declining at a slightly faster pace than other Inner East Bay cities.
Happy Solstice! The first 2 weeks of Winter each year is generally the low point each calendar year for inventory. There are 59% fewer single family homes actively available on the market in Oakland this weekend compared to 2 months ago, for example. We have an unusual set of dynamics at play in the market: Mortgage rates ticked up after the Fed announced its first rate cut in September, and again following the rate cut this past week. This confuses the market, sidelining some buyers. And of course, we had a divisive election which will take a period of time for the money markets to digest and could cause ongoing volatility in money markets during the transition of power (as seen this week with unusual government influence from outside parties like Elon Musk).
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. This is a good time of year for deals on property that has not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay. Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The number of active listings has slowed down consistently from this year's high water mark of 620 on September 11, and the number of homes going under contract has also slowed, but homes are going under contract at a faster pace than the general decline in new inventory.
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The number of active listings has fallen and plateaued over the past month, and the number of homes going under contract has slowed in the past couple of weeks. The bulk of existing inventory at this point is not being embraced by buyers. This is a great time of year if you’re shopping for a deal, otherwise buyers will need to wait until mid-January at this point before they can expect a variety of new listings of any great quality, and sellers will need to rethink their strategy for success.
The data for Richmond for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses, also points to a slow down in new listings, and with homes going under contract at a reasonably consistent rate over the past month.
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. Please let us know if you’d like more detail on this aspect of the market. It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last type of property to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn.
Open Homes for Sunday, December 22: Let’s break it down:
Of the 95 single family residential homes that have an open house, 4% had a price adjustment. This is a lower adjustment rate than the prior 2 months. It seems though that this week rather than adjust the listing price many sellers with property languishing on the market have opted instead to cancel their listing rather than adjust the price down. See below for more information on cancelations.
Of the 40 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 4% had a price adjustment. This is a much lower adjustment rate than the prior 2 months. There continues to be significant opportunities in the faltering condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers. The average days on market for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 81 days. Understanding the cancellation rate of listings is also important and there’s more on that below.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days:
A total of 81 listings were canceled from the Multiple Listing service in the past 7 days across all price points. The graph shows a significant pop in cancellations for the last ½ of December, especially for single family homes.
Most (but not all) cancellations are in Oakland. Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them in the New Year or, in some cases, renting them. The pop at the end of the year is not unusual. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list.
A quick word about mortgage rates in general since home mortgage rates have been top of mind for consumers in the past few years: Since September the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 1% but mortgage rates have ticked up in the past month causing confusion among consumers. Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. As the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increases, typically so too do mortgage interest rates, and as the the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond declines, mortgage interest rates typically follow the same pattern.
Pro-tip: It’s worth also considering the impact of elections on the current year and what historic data can tell us about elections' impact on the following calendar year. Click here for our July 2024 Newsletter with a feature on “The Impact Of Elections”.
Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is consistently a top production realtor in the East Bay and Berkeley, Albany and Richmond. He is respected by clients and colleagues alike.
Declan Spring is probably the best real estate agent and realtor working in the East Bay, Berkeley, Albany, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Kensington, Pinole, Hercules, and Oakland. Time and time agin his clients review him with 5 stars and extraordinary compliments. Declan Spring received most of his business by referral. He does not need to rely on traditional marketing because people are always lining up to work with him through word of mouth. He’s known as the realtors realtor because he gets a lot of referral business from industry professionals. How would you like to work with a realtors realtor? Declan Spring has a stellar industry reputation and consumers are generally not aware that being well respected in the agent community and industry is a super power for Declan’s clients.