November 23-24, 2024

Weekend Open Homes & Market Analysis

The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for the weekend of Saturday, November 23, 2024, and Sunday, November 24, 2024.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett. 

We’re  happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.

For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we're happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay. 

For this week’s Saturday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.

For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here. 

The number of open houses for Sundays this year peaked on 9/20 with 528 open houses, which is the typical post-Labor Day trend, but has slowed down in recent weeks per the chart below. This slow down is the seasonal trend each year for the period from mid-October until mid-January, and the data shows that the trend becomes even more pronounced in an election year. Click here for our July Newsletter with a feature on “The Impact Of Elections”.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 66% which is perfectly in line with the past 4 month average of 66% and makes sense considering the higher population density in Oakland relative to other East Bay cities. 

Fall Inventory is generally tightening in the East Bay with a flat or declining number of listings available.  There are 23% fewer single family homes actively available on the market in Oakland this weekend compared to 5 weeks ago. We have not seen as steep a drop off in active listings in our other Inner East Bay cities in the past month. Other cities have maintained a very consistent level of active listings during the same period. We have an unusual set of dynamics at play in the market: Mortgage rates have ticked up every week since the Fed announced rate cuts in the past couple of months. This has caused confusion in the market and has sidelined some buyers. And, of course, we had a divisive election last, the results of which will take a period of time for the money markets to digest.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. This is a good time of year for deals on property that has not successfully found a buyer within 21 days of being on the market. 

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay. Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond. 

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 5 weeks for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The number of active listings has started to slow down considerably from this year's high water mark of 620 on September 11, and the number of homes going under contract has also slowed, but homes are going under contract at a faster pace than the general decline in new inventory.

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 5 weeks for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The number of active listings has fallen below 60 for the first time since early August while the number of homes going under contract has picked up speed in the past week. The data tells us that inventory in the Berkeley market is getting pinched and likely won’t rebound before mid-January.

The data for Richmond for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses, also points to slow down in new listings, but homes are not going under contract at the same speed as they are in Oakland and Berkeley meaning that listings in Richmond are taking longer to sell. 

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. Please let us know if you’d like more detail on this aspect of the market. It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last type of property to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. 

Open Homes for Sunday, November 24: Let’s break it down:

Of the 158 single family residential homes that have an open house, 7% had a price adjustment. That’s the same as last week, but more pronounced when you think about it given that there are 60 fewer single family homes open this week over last week. The bulk of price adjusted property, as is typical, is concentrated in Oakland with just a few exceptions. This data reveals that sellers are adjusting the listing price down on underperforming listings ahead of the approaching holiday season, to get more in line with what buyers might be willing to pay.

Of the 78 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 9% had a price adjustment. This is about the same as last week. The bulk of price adjusted property, as is typical, is concentrated in Oakland with just a few exceptions. There continues to be significant opportunities in the faltering condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers. The average days on market for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 71 days. Understanding the cancellation rate listings is also important and there’s more on that below. 

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days:

A total of 54 listings were canceled from the Multiple Listing service in the past 7 days across all price points. This is a big step up from the prior week. Here’s the cancellation data for the past 5 weeks.

Most cancellations are in Oakland. Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them in the New Year or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list..

Here's a quick word about mortgage rates in general since home mortgage rates have been top of mind for consumers in the past few years: Since September the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 0.75% basis points but mortgage rates have ticked up in the past month causing confusion among consumers. Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. As the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increases, typically so too do mortgage interest rates, and as the the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond declines, mortgage interest rates typically follow the same pattern.

Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com 

Declan Spring is probably the best real estate agent and realtor working in the East Bay, Berkeley, Albany, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Kensington, Pinole, Hercules, and Oakland. Time and time agin his clients review him with 5 stars and extraordinary compliments. Declan Spring received most of his business by referral. He does not need to rely on traditional marketing because people are always lining up to work with him through word of mouth. He’s known as the realtors realtor because he gets a lot of referral business from industry professionals. How would you like to work with a realtors realtor? Declan Spring has a stellar industry reputation and consumers are generally not aware that being well respected in the agent community and industry is a super power for Declan’s clients.