Monthly report · No.13
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2025
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
The Spring market has continued its accelerating trajectory. Note: the data from March does not reflect any of the nationwide turbulence brought on by the current regime's tariffs and trade policies.
The number of new listings continues to significantly outpace 2024 levels. There were 598 new listings brought on in the month of March (vs 493 in March of 2024; a 21.3% Year-over-Year (YoY) increase). Buyer activity is increasing and keeping apace, broadly speaking. There were 355 listings sold last month (an 11.3% YoY increase).
The absorption rate for the area increased from 38.3% at the start of March to 43% at the start of April. We are sitting at 2.3 months of supply of inventory, meaning it would take 2.3 months (about 69 days) of buyer activity to absorb all of the inventory on the market. This is about where we were at in September of last year. While these numbers would signify a hot market, heavily favoring sellers, in most of the rest of the country, this is a high month's supply of inventory relative to the Inner East Bay. The last time we had numbers this high was November of 2011.
The economic landscape is in a very different place than it was 14 years ago. Recent events indicate a real possibility that, for the first time since WWII, the US dollar could lose its’ unrivaled status as the primary global reserve currency. The ramifications of this would be huge and complex - and this is not the article for a deep dive on the topic. I’m not an economist.
Instead, I will relate an anecdotal conversation I recently had with some would-be buyers. They were alarmed by recent events; did I think lower housing prices were on the horizon? Whether prices go up or down, I worry that housing will become even less affordable in the future - especially in desirable regions like the Bay Area. If the dollar loses value and it costs more dollars to buy goods, then we will face inflation (read - higher prices). If that is the case, we can expect interest rates to rise well beyond their current level (which are, historically speaking, still low-to-moderate). If interest rates rise enough to finally bring down housing prices, there will be nothing to celebrate - homes will be less affordable than ever, and our economy will be in a dangerous position. Fundamentally, we will not see housing become more affordable because the root of the issue is a lack of housing supply in relation to our population. The cost to build new housing has increased substantially since the COVID pandemic, and there is no sign that the cost to build will go anywhere but up in the near future.
Ultimately, these potential buyers decided to hold off on buying a home because one of them felt job insecurity. But for any would-be buyers who feel secure in their source(s) of income - I would make the case that the present moment could be their best opportunity to buy a home. Much like how this upcoming summer will be a hot one, but all future summers will only be hotter.
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
Weathering the Storm—Together - If you’ve been watching the housing market lately, you may be feeling quite a mix of emotions—confused, frustrated, maybe even scared. And you know what? That’s okay.
After 20 years in this business, I can tell you that the only constant in real estate is change. The market goes through ups and downs, interest rates rise and fall, and headlines can make even the calmest among us start to second-guess our goals and timing. What’s happening right now is unprecedented, so it’s difficult (or maybe impossible) to use historic financial data to chart a course through the current environment. But here’s what I want you to know: you’re not alone.
It’s normal to feel uncertain right now. These are unusual times. The thing is, hard times don’t last forever—and we do not have to face them alone. That’s why community matters more than ever. Whether you’re a homeowner looking to make the most of your current situation, a renter wondering if you’ll ever get your foot in the door, or a potential buyer preparing for the right moment—there’s strength in simply staying connected.
I’m not just here as your mortgage broker – I’m your neighbor too. If you have questions, I’m here to help you find the answers. If you are looking for perspective, I’ll offer it. If you’re feeling unsure, I’ll listen. We’ll navigate this together—step by step, one thing at a time.
So yes, it’s normal to feel scared, especially at times like these. Do not let fear stop you from reaching out, asking questions, or planning for your future. When the dust settles—and it will—those who stay informed, grounded, and supported will be in the strongest position to move forward.
We’ve weathered storms before, and we’ll do it again. Together.
Next Month: Navigating Uncertainty—What You Can Control in the Market
We’ll take a closer look at the small, smart steps you can take right now—whether you're buying, selling, or staying put—so you feel more empowered and less overwhelmed. Even in uncertain times, there are always things you can do to move forward with confidence when the time is right. See you then!
You can always reach out to me for mortgage information and more in depth discussion at evelyn.freitas@rate.com – I’m looking forward to hearing from you.
Q1 2025 East Bay Housing Market Update: Prices Rise, Homes Sell Faster
By Declan Spring
The latest data from Q1 2025 shows continued strength in the East Bay housing market. Median sale prices for single-family homes rose 4.2% year-over-year, climbing from $945,000 in Q1 2024 to $985,000 in Q1 2025. Alongside this price increase, the pace of home sales picked up, with 9.6% more homes sold—and selling 10% faster than the previous year.
The latest data from Q1 2025 shows continued strength in the East Bay housing market. Median sale prices for single-family homes rose 4.2% year-over-year, climbing from $945,000 in Q1 2024 to $985,000 in Q1 2025. Alongside this price increase, the pace of home sales picked up, with 9.6% more homes sold—and selling 10% faster than the previous year.
One key driver of this activity: buyers are still paying above asking in competitive neighborhoods. The average over-list sale price (OLPSP) jumped 4.7% year-over-year, signaling that bidding wars and multiple-offer situations remain common in certain areas.
Inventory Rises, But It’s Still a Seller’s Market
While inventory levels have improved—rising from 1.58 months in Q1 2024 to 2.18 months in Q1 2025—the market still strongly favors sellers. A balanced market typically requires around 5 months of housing supply, so even with the recent gains, inventory remains tight.
Buyers now have slightly more choices, but competition remains fierce in many neighborhoods. If you’re thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay, understanding these market trends can help you make a more informed move.
OPINION
It’s important to keep in mind that Q1 data was not impacted by the tariff disruptions that have defined the start of Q2. As a result, it’s unclear whether the trends observed in Q1 will carry into Q2 as they might in a more typical year.
I’m being asked recently, more and more often, if the real estate market will crash. I don’t think so. Will it soften? That’s a possibility. All I know for sure is that the underpinnings of the 2008 financial crises, which was deeply rooted in problematic real estate lending practices, are not present. Homeowners in America simply have too much skin in the game, . i.e., equity. The collective value of U.S. households’ equity is nearly $35 trillion — an unprecedented sum. The average mortgage-holding homeowner has approximately $311,000 in equity, according to CoreLogic. This is night and day compared to the situation preempting the 2008 financial crises. For a deeper dive click here.
Mortgage Market Chaos: Navigating Rates, Tariffs, and Policy Uncertainties
In the most recent episode of The Mostly Real Estate Podcast, mortgage expert Dominic Villa pulls back the curtain on today's chaotic lending landscape, revealing truths that every homeowner and buyer needs to understand.
What happens when global politics, tariff wars, and housing policy collide? You can listen to the episode by clicking here.
New Listing Alert!
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We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com
(415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com
(510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com
(510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
GUIDING AND INSPIRING PEOPLE TO INCREASE THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND LOVE OF LIFE THROUGH WELL DESIGNED HOME OWNERSHIP
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591